Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13091/3249
Title: Analysis of land use/land cover changes and prediction of future changes with land change modeler: Case of Belek, Turkey
Authors: Akdeniz, Halil Burak
Serdaroğlu Sağ, Neslihan
İnam, Şaban
Keywords: Land use
land cover
Land Change Modeler
LULC modelling
Tourism center
Cellular-Automata
Urban-Growth
Markov-Chain
Neural-Networks
City
Gis
Dynamics
Forest
Fragmentation
Simulation
Issue Date: 2023
Publisher: Springer
Abstract: In the areas declared to be a tourism center by state planning, a rapid tourism-related development occurs depending on the investments in tourism, which causes a dramatic land use/land cover (LULC) change. Determining, monitoring, and modeling of LULC changes are required in order to ensure the conservation-use balance and sustainability within such vulnerable areas that are under development pressure. This study consists of four steps. In the first step, the Landsat images dated 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were classified using the maximum likelihood method and the LULC of Belek Tourism Center located in Turkey were determined. The second step included the identification of areal and spatial changes between the LULC classes for the four periods. In the third step, the LULC changes in Belek Tourism Center for 2040 were modeled using the land change modeler. Last step evaluated the relationship between the modeled spatial development pattern and the current planning decisions. According to the results obtained during 36 years, the rates of built-up, forest, and water body areas have increased by 11.91%, 13.67%, and 0.82%, respectively, whereas the rates of barren land and agricultural areas have reduced by 22.25% and 4.15%, respectively. The LULC map modeled for 2040 predicts the built-up areas to expand by 8.25% and the agricultural areas to shrink by 5.42% by comparison with 2021. This study will contribute as a key measure for planners, policy-, and decision-makers to make decisions related to sustainable land use in the areas declared to be a tourism center.
URI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10746-w
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13091/3249
ISSN: 0167-6369
1573-2959
Appears in Collections:Mimarlık ve Tasarım Fakültesi Koleksiyonu
PubMed İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / PubMed Indexed Publications Collections
Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / Scopus Indexed Publications Collections
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu / WoS Indexed Publications Collections

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