Analysis of land use/land cover changes and prediction of future changes with land change modeler: Case of Belek, Turkey

Abstract

In the areas declared to be a tourism center by state planning, a rapid tourism-related development occurs depending on the investments in tourism, which causes a dramatic land use/land cover (LULC) change. Determining, monitoring, and modeling of LULC changes are required in order to ensure the conservation-use balance and sustainability within such vulnerable areas that are under development pressure. This study consists of four steps. In the first step, the Landsat images dated 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were classified using the maximum likelihood method and the LULC of Belek Tourism Center located in Turkey were determined. The second step included the identification of areal and spatial changes between the LULC classes for the four periods. In the third step, the LULC changes in Belek Tourism Center for 2040 were modeled using the land change modeler. Last step evaluated the relationship between the modeled spatial development pattern and the current planning decisions. According to the results obtained during 36 years, the rates of built-up, forest, and water body areas have increased by 11.91%, 13.67%, and 0.82%, respectively, whereas the rates of barren land and agricultural areas have reduced by 22.25% and 4.15%, respectively. The LULC map modeled for 2040 predicts the built-up areas to expand by 8.25% and the agricultural areas to shrink by 5.42% by comparison with 2021. This study will contribute as a key measure for planners, policy-, and decision-makers to make decisions related to sustainable land use in the areas declared to be a tourism center.