An Examination of the Variability of Precipitation Data in Sinop Province With Graphical Innovative Trend Methods

Abstract

With the impact of climate change, irregularities in precipitation regimes are experienced and these irregularities make their effects felt more and more both as droughts and floods. The elimination or minimization of these negative effects depends on the policies to be developed by revealing the changes in precipitation. In this study, the variability in precipitation data of the Sinop meteorological station in Türkiye was tried to be revealed with innovative graphical trend approaches. Innovative Trend Risk Analysis (ITRA), Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA), Trend Polygon Star Concept (TPSC), and Innovative Trend Pivot Analysis Method (ITPAM), were used to analyze the monthly total precipitation data of the Sinop meteorological station for the period 1938-2021 (84 years). As a result of the analysis, the method applied using the combination of ŞenITA and ITRA (ŞenITA-ITRA) showed that there is an increasing trend in the monthly total precipitation in Sinop province and 94% of the precipitation is in the 4th and 5th degree risk level. Arithmetic mean and standard deviation IPTA result also showed that precipitation in almost all months is in the increasing trend region. When ITPAM graphs are analyzed, according to the arithmetic mean results, five months have been observed in the 1st and 2nd-degree risk range, high and very high increasing trend region. Standard deviation ITPAM graphs also show that at least one month is in the 1st-degree risk range and has a high degree of increasing trend. TPSC graphs for both arithmetic mean and standard deviation generally show that the transition arrows between consecutive months are mostly in the region of increasing trend (region I) and decreasing trend (region III).