Temporal Variability of Artvin Monthly Total Precipitation from 1949 to 2020

Abstract

Precipitation variability is one of the most important hydrological phenomena affecting the whole world. Human impacts and climate change are gradually altering the spatial and temporal pattern of precipitation. In this study, the temporal variability of monthly total precipitation in Artvin province was analyzed. Artvin is one of the provinces with high rainfall in Türkiye, which is significantly affected by climate change. 1949-2020 was determined as the study period. Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) and Window-Based Change Point Detection (WBCPD) methods were used as multiple change point detection methods to examine temporal variability. After determining the sub-periods, the temporal variability of precipitation was analyzed comparatively in terms of basic statistical parameters, precipitation anomaly time series, and long-term seasonal averages. As a result of the findings, 1956 and 1985 were identified as the change years. Three sub-periods were determined according to the change years. While the averages of the three sub- periods show a gradual increase, the negative direction of the linear slopes is remarkable. The highest maximum rainfall (about 325 mm) was observed in the third period and the lowest maximum rainfall (about 225 mm) was observed in the second period. In the long-term seasonal averages, a significant divergence was found between the three sub-periods. In the sub-periods, the lowest precipitation was observed in July and August, and the highest precipitation was observed in January and December.