Implementation of Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis to Monthly and Seasonal Precipitation Data of Ordu Station

Abstract

It is of great importance to analyze the climate parameters in order to evaluate and develop strategies to minimize the negative effects of climate change. Trend analyses are widely used in the analysis of climate elements. The number of studies in which trend analyzes have been made in recent years has been increasing in Turkey as well as in the whole world to reveal the effects of climate change. In trend analysis, besides statistical methods, graphical methods have come to the fore in recent years. In this study, the changes in the monthly total precipitation and seasonal precipitation values of Ordu station (for the 1961-2020 period) in the Black Sea Region were evaluated. For this purpose, Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method was used. IPTA method was applied for both arithmetic mean and standard deviation data. A regular polygon was not seen in the IPTA graphs drawn for monthly precipitation data. However, according to the arithmetic mean (standard deviation) IPTA graphs of the monthly data, there was a decreasing trend in three (seven) months and an increasing trend in eight (four) months for Ordu province, and no trend was found in one (one) month. On the other hand, while there is no regular polygon in the Ordu province arithmetic mean IPTA graph for seasonal data, there is a regular polygon in the standard deviation seasonal IPTA graph.