Predicting future opportunities and threats of land-use changes on beekeeping activities in Turkey

Abstract

Since beekeeping is directly dependent on land-use patterns, beekeeping is much more affected by land-use changes than other sectors. As land-use changes have accelerated over the past decade, beekeeping is becoming more vulnerable and the need to monitor the response of the honey bee colonies to land-use changes is more important than ever. In this study, land-use changes were identified and future projections were made to determine whether the study area will provide new opportunities for beekeeping or whether valuable land will be irretrievably destroyed. One of the main objectives of this study is to show the future trends of the Turkish apicultural sector and its response to land-use changes along with changes in agriculture, forests, urban and natural plant areas in 2025, 2040 and 2050. The results show that by 2050, a total of 2840 km(2) of fruit tree, 883.2 km(2) of agricultural area will increase, and 1481.4 km(2) of forest area will be lost. Since the largest expansion is expected in fruit trees (citrus in the study area), land-use changes were assessed by analyzing honey statistics for citrus and the contribution of honey bees to citrus pollination to verify the reliability of the predictions.