Evaluation of annual total precipitation in the transboundary Euphrates-Tigris River Basin of Turkiye using innovative graphical and statistical trend approaches

Abstract

The Euphrates-Tigris River Basin (ETRB), one of the largest river basins in the Middle East, is also among the most risky transboundary basins in the world. ETRB has a critical importance for the region both politically and economically due to its location. Evaluating the increasing regional impacts of climate change is even more important for the sustainable management of water and soil resources, especially in transboundary basins such as ETRB. Turkiye is one of the most important riparian countries of the ETRB and the Turkiye part of ETRB constitutes the headwater of the basin. In this study, the temporal variability of the annual total precipitation data for the period 1965-2020 of eighteen stations located in the Turkiye part of the ETRB was investigated. Classical Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to statistically determine the monotonic trend of precipitation. In addition to the MK method, analyses were carried out with three innovative trend methods, which have the ability to interpret trends both statistically and graphically. These innovative trend methods are Sen innovative trend analysis (Sen-ITA), Onyutha trend test (OTT) and trend analysis with combination of Wilcoxon test and scatter diagram (CWTSD). The results obtained show that there is a decreasing trend in annual total precipitation in ETRB according to all trend methods generally used for the examined period. In addition, the results obtained from the relatively new OTT and CWTSD methods show strong consistency with the results of the other two methods. The advantages such as performing numerical and visual trend analysis with innovative OTT and CWTSD methods, identifying trends in low-medium-high value data and detecting sub-trends have shown that these methods can be used as an alternative to the widely used MK and Sen-ITA.