Time Series Analysis of Long-Term Stock Performance of Airlines: the Case of Turkish Airlines

Abstract

This study presents a time series analysis of the long-term stock performance of airlines, with a focus on Turkish Airlines (THY). Stock-related variables were obtained from the Istanbul Stock Exchange, and other variables were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The research investigates various economic factors that may influence THY's stock prices over an extended period. Specifically, the study examines the relationship between global energy prices, inflation, the BIST100 index, gold prices, exchange rates, and THY stock prices. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, a versatile technique capable of estimating both short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The findings of this research reveal significant and statistically meaningful connections between these economic variables and THY's stock prices. Notably, the study highlights the impact of global energy prices and other economic factors on the long-term stock performance of Turkish Airlines. These results provide valuable insights for investors and analysts seeking to understand and forecast THY's stock price movements.