The Impact of Public Investment on Urban Growth Under Different Scenarios by Using the Sleuth as a Forecasting Model: The Case of Konya/Turkey

Abstract

This article's main focus has been the Rink Road Project in Konya, which is slated for construction despite serious urban growth issues. The study looked at how this project may impact urban growth in order to provide knowledge that would guide future land use policies and plans for sustainable urban development. The urban growth trend 2043 which is the target year of the environmental plan, and 2055 were examined using the SLEUTH Urban Growth model. Six different SLEUTH model scenarios that take a different tack on urban growth were assessed in alternative futures. This study also tries to figure out; assesses a range of potential spatial transformations around the planned Konya Ring Road (KRR), incorporating the first Environmental Plan established post the enactment of Turkey's Law No. 6360 into the scenario planning. According to future predictions of urban growth, a flexible Konya Environmental Plan (KEP) in the short term could potentially intensify the adverse effects of urban expansion associated with the KRR in the absence of a stringent KEP. Long-term observations from the examined scenarios reveal a significantly higher projected urban growth in cases where an KEP is absent. If current land policies continue without significant modifications, the completion of the KRR is expected to accelerate urban growth in Konya, leading to a substantial transformation of natural areas into urban zones.