Causes of Farmland Abandonment in Poland: A Comprehensive Study Using Logistic Regression, Expert Assessment, and ALS Data

Abstract

Abandoning land cultivation is a phenomenon whose underlying drivers remain insufficiently understood. This study examined the possible associations between selected variables and landowners’ decisions to cease cultivation in the Olkusz district (southern Poland), covering an area of 620 km² and including 82 villages. To assess the extent of abandonment, expert evaluation was applied, based on the analysis of changes recorded in the Corine Land Cover databases (1990 and 2018) and airborne laser scanning data. The latter enabled a detailed assessment of vegetation structure—particularly forest succession—within areas traditionally used for agriculture. The influence of natural, social, and economic factors was analyzed using a logistic regression model. The results obtained indicate that only plot size and land quality should be considered as factors that may influence landowners' decisions to discontinue agricultural production. All other examined factors proved to be insignificant. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd