Calibration of Swat and Two Data-Driven Models for a Data-Scarce Mountainous Headwater in Semi-Arid Konya Closed Basin

Abstract

Hydrologic models are important tools for the successful management of water resources. In this study, a semi-distributed soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is used to simulate streamflow at the headwater of Caramba River, located at the Konya Closed Basin, Turkey. For that, first a sequential uncertainty fitting-2 (SUFI-2) algorithm is employed to calibrate the SWAT model. The SWAT model results are also compared with the results of the radial-based neural network (RBNN) and support vector machines (SVM). The SWAT model performed well at the calibration stage i.e., determination coefficient (R-2) = 0.787 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) = 0.779, and relatively lower values at the validation stage i.e., R-2 = 0.508 and NSE = 0.502. Besides, the data-driven models were more successful than the SWAT model. Obviously, the physically-based SWAT model offers significant advantages such as performing a spatial analysis of the results, creating a streamflow model taking into account the environmental impacts. Also, we show that SWAT offers the ability to produce consistent solutions under varying scenarios whereas it requires a large number of inputs as compared to the data-driven models.