Energy Demand Projection of Turkey Based on Coot Bird Metaheuristic Optimizer

Abstract

The energy demand projection forms the basis of realistic energy planning. In this study, from 1979 to 2011, a 33- year data set including gross domestic product (GDP), population, import and export was used for energy demand forecasting in Turkey. Using this data set, two different energy estimation models, linear (COOT_L) and quadratic (COOT_Q), were developed with the Coot bird metaheuristic optimizer. These models were compared with different optimization algorithms in the literature. When the experimental results were examined, the COOT_L model produced a more successful result than the results of other algorithms. Furthermore, COOT_Q was seen to become more successful than PSO and ACO. In addition to these, the COOT_L and COOT_Q models forecasted the future energy demand between 2012 and 2030 in Turkey and their results were compared with those of DE methods. When the results were examined, while DE and COOT_L produced similar results in linear form, certain differences were observed among the results of COOT_Q and DE.