Analysing the Impact of Urban Growth on Agricultural Lands Using Sleuth Model and Google Earth Engine

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine the urban growth in the Sel & ccedil;uklu district of Konya, which is the study area with the SLEUTH model based on cellular automata, which is widely used in the modeling of urban growth and land use, and to examine the effect of urbanization on agricultural areas in the near future. In addition to the simulations carried out for the years 2030 and 2050 starting from 2015, which was determined as the last control year in the model, the simulation results of the year 2022 were compared with the terrain classes obtained from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) controlled classification of the 2022 Landsat satellite image. As a result of the creation of simulation models for the years 2030 and 2050, it was concluded that 10428.75-23747.49 hectares of agricultural land will be destroyed, respectively. The SLEUTH model has modeled a total of 56468.26 hectares of agricultural land for 2022. This corresponds to 95% of the classification result for 2022, which is an important factor in examining the accuracy of the model. This study, which aims to guide decision makers and planners, shows that the use of the SLEUTH model has for the examination of future land use.