Sarı, F.Kavallieratos, N.G.Eleftheriadou, N.2024-09-222024-09-2220240944-13441614-7499https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-34664-1https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.13091/6289Turkey is the leading producer of pine honey worldwide, accounting for 90% of global production, largely due to the presence of Marchalina hellenica populations. However, in recent years, devastating forest fires have caused substantial damage to Pinus brutia forests and M. hellenica populations, leading to a dramatic decline in pine honey production areas. The urgency for early intervention procedures against forest fires and relocation of M. hellenica populations to other P. brutia forests has become apparent. A comprehensive assessment of 25 criteria was conducted to investigate the thresholds and behaviors of each criterion, which play a vital role in the distribution of M. hellenica, using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). To evaluate the impact of forest fires on the distribution of M. hellenica, the potential locations of pine honey production areas were determined for 2022. Furthermore, the susceptibility of forest fires was modeled for all pine honey production months. The findings revealed that forest fires have destroyed 384.9 km2 (12.8% of the total pine honey production area), predominantly in August and September, with the most severe damage in Marmaris (156 km2) and significant impacts in Ula, Köyceğiz, and Milas. The analysis facilitates the estimation of new areas suitable for M. hellenica and pine honey production while providing valuable insights into strategies for mitigating forest fires and formulating proactive protection protocols. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessForecasting; Forest fire; Giant pine scale; Maximum entropy model; Species distribution model; Turkish pineFire risks; Forest fires; Giant pine scale; Honey production; Maximum entropy models; Potential distributions; Production area; Species distribution modeling; Turkish pine; Turkishs; Forest ecologyArticle10.1007/s11356-024-34664-12-s2.0-85202047734